Hello: Study: Education
Education and Learning: Possibilities by 2030
A Millennium Project Real Time Delphi Study
By pass introduction
Introduction
You do not have to complete this questionnaire in one visit. When you return to the questionnaire you will see your previous answers and may change them if you wish. You are encouraged to return to this questionnaire several times before the deadline of January 17, 2010.
Focus
This study requests that you provide judgments about important learning and educational possibilities over the next 25 years. The study is broad and all ideas are invited, even those that seem far out today but may become real in the next 25 years. As you will see the study includes the transfer of knowledge, improving intelligence, training, socialization, changes in technology, institutional change, and delivery methods. As you answer questions about the likelihood of future developments in the next 25 years, please consider what has happened in the last 25 years: the acceleration of systems that transfer information, growing knowledge of the functioning of the brain and the genetic basis for development. Things not dreamed of 25 years ago are commonplace today. You are encouraged to be adventurous in your thinking and speculate about the futures of education and learning that are based on an acceleration of today's acceleration.
The Questionnaire
Your answers will remain anonymous although your name will be listed as a participant. Please answer only those questions about which you feel comfortable. Leaving sections blank is acceptable.
You will note that the column calling for your judgments has several entries:
1) A place for you to enter your estimate of the likelihood that a given educational or learning possibility will be in use at least experimentally by 2030, in formal or informal settings, in schools, on line, by business- or in modes we may not have yet thought of- somewhere in the world. Please enter a number between 0 and 100 which represents your judgment about the possibility's likelihood by 2030. 2) The current group average assessment of likelihood. 3) The number of responses received so far 4) A "click here" button that takes you to a second page where you can provide a variety of judgments about each possibility, and see a list of inputs provided by other participants.
1) A place for you to enter your estimate of the likelihood that a given educational or learning possibility will be in use at least experimentally by 2030, in formal or informal settings, in schools, on line, by business- or in modes we may not have yet thought of- somewhere in the world. Please enter a number between 0 and 100 which represents your judgment about the possibility's likelihood by 2030.
2) The current group average assessment of likelihood.
3) The number of responses received so far
4) A "click here" button that takes you to a second page where you can provide a variety of judgments about each possibility, and see a list of inputs provided by other participants.
Finally
A box at the bottom of the questionnaire invites your further suggestions.
There are two ways to enter your answers. 1) You may enter your answers one at a time by pressing the "go" button in each cell or 2) you may press the "submit" button at the bottom of the form to enter your answers all at once. If you choose to enter your responses one cell at a time by pressing "go" in each cell, please make sure that new inputs in other cells have been entered or they will be lost. In either case, your answers will be entered immediately, and the form will return to your screen. When you see the form it will contain your answers, the group's answers will have been updated to include your estimate, and you may change your answers if you wish.
Please return to the questionnaire often. When you come back you will to see how the group's answers have evolved and you will be able to change your answers if you wish.
This questionnaire is not like questionnaires with which you may be familiar. You need not complete it all in one sitting. It will be available to you through January 17, 2010.
Please remember to press SUBMIT at end of questionnaire.
Questionnaire
Some richer as well as lower income countries have (by this year of 2030) made improving collective intelligence a national goal; this includes improving individual as well as intelligence for their nations-as-whole.
Click here to see references
Likelihood by 2030
The average group answer: 0.0
Respondents: 0
Comments on this possibility (page 2) click here
Rote learning has diminished in importance. With ubiquitous computing and education for life-long learning, 'just in time knowledge' has become the norm. Reasoning, problem solving, and learning strategies form the core focus of public educational systems.
Through tests of various sorts, including simulations, the needs of individual students are being assessed and curricula and instructional methods are tailored to individual students. Twenty years ago this used to be called 'special needs' but now it is recognized that all students have special needs and those needs are being largely met in many places in the world.
In 2030, virtual reality simulations with programmed learning are available and used internationally, accounting for nearly a third of the tele-educational experience in elementary and secondary schools. These simulations allow people to progress at their own pace alone or in groups. They are designed on the basis of insights derived from cognitive science. They diagnose and adapt to the individual’s and/or group’s learning style and need for hints and other forms of prompts. This is a means of providing artificial experience and social experimentation in a safe environment
The objective of these programs which have appeared in several countries is to identify persons who seem likely in later life to exhibit antisocial behavior including terrorist activities and violent criminality. Special nurturing programs are provided to people identified in this way to help them from becoming unstable or mentally ill in later life.
Self-administered diagnostic tests identify individualized nutrition requirements for improved cognitive development. These tests are used in the more affluent areas and are beginning to be used in lower income areas with government and insurance company support.
Genes that contribute to increasing intelligence and learning have been identified and used by many parents in the upper and middle classes of the world to change the potential intelligence of their future children. Treatments have been subsidized for many people in the poorer regions.
Virtual realities like Second Life (which in 2006 had more than a million and a half inhabitants) are used by leading cognitive scientists, curriculum experts, behavioral scientists to evolve the equivalent of natural laws for social behavior and new tele-virtual educational simulations. In these e-universes, people act as societies, form laws, build new cultures and provide a means to experiment with the glue of society without concerns that might accompany human experimentation.
In 2030, social marketing of learning concepts or memes is widespread. Some of the themes have been: Intelligence is Sexy; Knowledge is Cool; Knowledge Matters; Ignorance Equals Poverty, and other such concepts. Public media leaders often meet with educational leaders, cognitive scientists, and entertainers to discuss promoting the message that learning is a central pursuit of life.
Most people carry tiny computers that contain extensive personal memories, and interact with their owners in human fashion. Meet a person on the street and the ear buds whisper on the basis of facial pattern recognition,' That's Billy Johnson who you met at a party three years ago. He is a pilot and his wife's name is Angie.' More seriously, the machine also participates in personal decision making and on the spot need for information. Some individuals have been technologically augmented with nanobots, brain chips and nanotech transceivers in clothing.
Just as the gene was decoded so was the connection pattern of the synapses in the human brain. From this complex map came information about cognitive development, intelligence, emotion, how to design artificially intelligent machines, and ultimately how to improve the speed and depth of learning.
In our time (2030) we have techniques for keeping adult brains healthier during the aging process. For example, adult neural stem cells have been cloned and injected into adult brains to keep them far healthier for longer times then formerly believed possible, making old age learning and an older knowledge-based work force possible.
Brain chemistry research has led to safe drugs that enhance intelligence, improve memory, increase attention span, improve visual acuity, and hand/eye coordination.
By 2030 the trend toward data integration on the Web that started around the turn of the century (Google Earth, Wikipedia, the MIT course material) has progressed to the point that a large part of the world's knowledge - data, analyses, discussions - has been integrated into Semantic Web 3.0. That structure is organized according to a logical framework of concepts (both precise and fuzzy ones), has a natural language interface, is dynamically maintained, and contains an intelligent subsystem that 'understands' the logical rules that govern the interactions of entities. The interface makes heavy use of virtual reality type graphic techniques for presenting knowledge and processes.
Today (2030) education ranges across all ages groups from pre-natal programs to programs for the elderly that provide knowledge, work, and leisure enjoyment.
Our psychologists (2030) believe that many wars and extremist activities are fueled by overt or subtle teachings of parents, peers, and teachers. Significant efforts have been made to reduce these influences in the education of young people.
Most of the poorer areas, as well as the more affluent ones use global outsourcing for e-teachers on-demand. These e-teachers are increasingly artificial constructs using artificial intelligence, rather than live humans.
Machines exist today (2030) which are clearly smarter than humans in any way that 'smartness' can be measured. With this threshold having been passsed, the roles and methods of education and learning are being reassessed everywhere.
Genetic codes have been written for new microbes which improve neural performance when co-habiting the brain.
Please suggest other important educational and learning possibilities that you think might be possible by 2030. If you have references, please include them as well.
Please come back in a few days to see how your views match others and to see if there are new insights that might change your views. You are encouraged to return many times before the deadline to review your entries. If you have difficulties please send your questions to acunu@igc.org.
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Date: 26 April, 2024
...1. October 13, 2006 MIT opened a new center for Collective Intelligence. link
...2. Collective intelligence examples: link
...3. Are dramatic increases in collective human-machine intelligence plausible within 25 years? Yes – 70%, The Millennium Project S Delphi, 2003 link
...1. Computerworld: Just in Time Learning, 2000 link
...2. Just-in-Time Education: Learning in the Global Information Age, 2000 link
...3. Just-in-time learning; the acquisition of knowledge or skills as they are needed. link
...1. Individualized Education Plans, 2003 link
...2. Special Education Resources on the Internet, 2001 link
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...2. João Pedro de Magalhães, Defining Our Children's Traits, 2006 link
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...2. Popular Science, Your Second Life is Ready, 2006 link
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...1. Stanford Research Center, Artificial Intellignece Center, 2006 link
...2. MIT, Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, 2006 link
...3. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 2006 link
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...3. Allen Institute for Brain Research, 2005 link
...1. Monika Guttman, The Aging Brain; Scientists are amassing a greater understanding of the long-term risk factors that adversely effect the brain in order to halt cognitive deterioration, 2001. link
...2. The Brain Aging Journal, 2006 link
...3. Medical News Today, With Few Factors, Adult Cells Take on Characteristics of Embrionic Stem Cells, December 9, 2006 link
...1. Wikipedia: Psychoactive Drug, 2006 link
...2. World Health Organization: Psychotropic Drugs, 2006 link
...3. Psychotropic Drugs and Children; Use, Trends, and Implications for Schools, 2004 link
...1. The Futurist: The Intelligent Internet link
...2. Bill Gates, Now for an Intelligent Internet, 2000 link
...3. Artificial Intelligence Foundation, 2006 link
...1. Elderhostel; Adventures in Lifelong Learning link
...2. Senior Strategies: The STEP (Students, Teachers, Elderly, Parents, Student Achievement) Program. Teaching and Learning across the Generations, 1983 link
...3. Life in the USA- Retirement and Aging New Careers, 2005 link
...1. US Department of Justice, Preventing Youth Hate Crimes, link
...2. Kathleen Cotton, Fostering Intercultural Harmony in Schools: Research Finding link
...3. Canada's Fourth Report under the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, 2006 link
...1. John Harris, Why We Need Better E-Teaching, Not More E-Learning, 2005 link
...2. Wikipedia, e- learning, 2006 link
...3. Wikipedia, Advanced Distributed Learning, 2006 link
...1. The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence link
...2. Nick Bostrom, Futurist Magazine, When Machines Outsmart Humans, 2000 link
...3. Raymond Kurzweil, Will My PC Be Smarter Than I Am?, 2000 link
...1. Antonio Regalado, The Wall Street Journal, Biologist Venter aims to create life from scratch, 2005 link
...2. David A. Relman, The human body as microbial observatory link
...3. Michael Purdy, Gut microbes' partnership helps body extract energy from food, store it as fat, 2006 link