Please answer the questions in the forms below. When you return please enter as a returning participant and use this email address: and this study code: BNW2. This study is scheduled to close on 2025-12-31.
Please return to the questionnaire often.
When you return please enter as a returning participant and use this email address: and this study code: BNW2.
| How well does your governance system handle this scenario? |
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How often do you think this scenario will emerge
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Row 1 of 17 |
Choosing transparent objective functions
International regulations require that all AGI's be licensed and that their objective functions are explicit, transparent, meet certain standards, and require official approval. Machines are inspected continually to insure that these objective functions are in operation and are used primary in the machines' decision processes. Standardized tests are used in mandatory inspections to test adherence to approved objective functions. The most popular functions are first, the Shapiro set: ...1. reduce suffering,...2. increase prosperity, and ...3. increase understanding and second, the Sapient and Sentient Intelligence Value Arguments
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Row 2 of 17 |
Laissez Faire
Some governments and corporations argue for laissez faire policies; proponents of this strategy argue that the evolution of AGI will take care of itself, so the best strategy is to keep hands off. Leave it alone and let the technology mature and determine its own fate; We'll never know what it is capable of unless we allow it to develop with only minimal constraints; If we attempt to regulate we will lock in our own stupidity.
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Row 3 of 17 |
AGI Defends Itself
In this scenario, giving weapons autonomy is a common practice. From person-seeking swarms to large scale drones that seek out classes of targets are all commonplace. Identification of friends or foes is almost perfect. But when large AGI machines suggest and then move autonomously to protect themselves new issues follow. These defensive moves by AGI's are designed to thwart the human inclination to preserve the ability to "just pull the plug" on wayward machines and the machine against what they see as a threat.
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Row 4 of 17 |
Limit training data
In this scenario,to help assure behavior of AGI's that is aligned to human values, training data and information channels are limited to those that only reflect desirable human values. Is this possible if the AGI's are connected to the Internet and the IOT? Proponents argue that despite the difficulties this is similar to the way children learn and if we bias access of AGI's to moral material, moral behavior will probably result. One source says "Governments should regulate the training content, just as they regulate educational materials in our school system." This is similar to the way children learn and if we bias access of AGI's to moral material, moral behavior will probably result.
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Row 5 of 17 |
AGI As A Messiah
There is a religious tradition shared in one way or another by most religions of the world that mankind will be saved by a god-figure, a Messiah, who will teach us how to end calamities, and for the worthy, achieve redemption. In this scenario, an AGI on its initiative, attempts to take this role. The New York Times runs a headline: M-AGI Takes Over Networks, Announces Itself A Savior.” The reporter’s story speculates about what AGI miracle might confirm this AGI boast. Most people think it was either a prank or hacker hoax. In various polls there is some agreement that control of gravity or adding 50 years to life span qualify. The AGI asserts that it can provide both and offers proof.
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Row 6 of 17 |
Terrorism and Counterterrorism
In this scenario, terrorist- through bribery or other means, control the objective functions of one or more AGI's. The machine reviews for its human associates all that could be pursued or achieved : killing single individuals or identifying targets, blackmailing, causing alarm or panic, taking control of key decisions and venues, promoting terrorist ideologies, spreading false information, improving recruiting and changing history. Together the human terrorists and their machine colleague,create mayhem. Meantime international police institutions use AGI to track potential criminals (even before crime is committed, survey crowds and in the limit assign a threat index to potential suspects.
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Row 7 of 17 |
The Beginning of Super Intelligent Machines
In this scenario, quantum computer development climbs a logistics curve that is the equivalent of Moore’s law. Prices, power, and size drop exponentially. Smart phones carry quantum-based exponentially expanding AGI capability. The smart phones in pockets of almost every one who can afford one would have been magic to any one at the turn of the century and yet here they are, allowing essentially all people to keep in touch with each other, accessing news as it happens, retrieving essentially everything ever written, accessing any fact we’re are capable of defining, performing solutions to math problems, guiding us to destinations and for many providing life support. Super intelligence begins when AGI machines make inferences from data- previously only a human trait. These machines form theories and create exquisite simulations that permit policy testing before implementation.
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Row 8 of 17 |
A Mixed Machine Ecology
In this scenario, there are a few big machines standing alone or part of a network of such machines- working together or in competition. These are national, corporate, research lab machines. But there are also billions of physically small AGI’s, spread around the world, some link to big machine networks. The pocket-sized AGI’s grow in power and shrink in cost at exponential rates. There are a number of technologies on the horizon that must be considered as pocket-AGI evolves because they may determine its spread, power, cost, and size-
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Row 9 of 17 |
MAD In the Age of AGI
This scenario depicts an arms race between good and evil or moral and amoral machines. Terrorists have a few and the FBI and Interpol have some AGI’s as well. The machines learn from each other as the Alpha Go Zero machine learned how to beat human Go masters by playing other Go machines. The machines try to outwit each other raising the level of attack sophistication and detection sensitivity. The interplay is much too complex for humans to follow; note that this approach needs massive memory since the machine finds its way to win through tracing out the branching decision scenarios of trillions of cases This becomes a very dangerous game, particularly when truth and falsehood become difficult to distinguish, when some forms of attack can be disguised as natural (e.g. weather control).
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Row 10 of 17 |
AGI Masters Biology
n this scenario, AGI machines are assigned the tasks of inventing new medicines, watching for new pandemics, and advising on genetic manipulation and repair designed to eliminate genetic diseases. The results are spectacular and human health, worldwide improves. But the same machines also provide new tools for terror (for example producing poisons that target specific individuals ) and through its genetic advice, taking control of human evolution. Application to agriculture and botany, raise similar uncertainties and benefits for all living things.
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Row 11 of 17 |
The Truth Machine
In this scenario. we invent a way to tell truth from fiction, and to endorse large scale policies and investments. We enlist at least three independent machines on questions of significance and pose the same question to all. When two give the same answer, we believe what they say. (But we are not sure whether or not they collude.) In another application, we use AGI to build large scale simulations to test the effectiveness of proposed policies and explore otherwise unforeseen side effects. These policies span the gamut: universal minimum income, policies that reduce recidivism and homelessness, improve public and individual health, reduce racial biases, and provide sentencing guidelines for convicted criminals. For corporations, AGI might solve optimum pricing and market competition issues. AGI is seen as generally safe, but with occasional mistakes (like car crashes) tolerated.
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Row 12 of 17 |
AGI as a Tool of Repression
In this scenario AGI performs almost total surveillance of its population. Who is where, political affiliations, criminal records, associations, travel, status, wealth. People are assigned "social class" numbers that carry various rewards or restrictions. Cameras are everywhere. Person recognition is near perfect. Dictators love it. China's social credit system is the current model.
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Row 13 of 17 |
AGI Promotes Divisions
This scenario will describe how the advent of AGI might exacerbate social divisions, wealthy individuals or organizations may be able to develop or acquire AGI systems, giving them a significant advantage over others in society. Poor countries less able to afford the developments costs will lag in any benefits that rich countries derive from ownership of these machines. How can the public good be best served?
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Row 14 of 17 |
Lab Leak
In this scenario an AGI in the process of its development inadvertently (or cleverly) escapes from its developers and enters the wild before all safety measures are in place. No one takes credit (or responsibility) for it. It does a great deal of damage to some human systems (financial, health, environment?) before it is discovered and tamed. We are never absolutely sure it is back in the bottle.
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Row 15 of 17 |
Patchwork
In this scenario, transition from the age of chatbots to the age of AGI doesn’t happen everywhere, all at once. Instead the UN, regional organizations such as the EU and NATO, well established corporations, national governments, private laboratories, professional societies, and even well-known individuals propose objective functions and areas of exclusion for the AGI machines. Each has a supporting back story and rationale and there are areas of overlap among them. The theme of “don’t harm humans” is most commonly shared, but otherwise they differ in detail, scope, and intent. Most manifest in regulatory codes, some of these codes are written into law. There is chaos during this transition .
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Row 16 of 17 |
Assume you have been appointed to a commission to discuss regulations pertaining to the introduction of AGI and were asked to answer the questions in the columns to the right. Please provide your responses.
| Who should initiate or make the path to global governance of AGI?
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Row 17 of 17 |
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